Those threatening to stage nationwide protests are badly heating up the polity. The government that is fretting about it is also helping to make a bad situation worse. Everyone, therefore, is in a panic mode. Many will die before they see what is going to kill them, forgetful of the admonition of Julius Caesar when he said: “Cowards die many times before their deaths; the valiant never tastes of death but once. Of all the wonders that I have yet heard, it seems to me most strange that men should fear; seeing that death, a necessary end, will come when it will come”.

One of the tales by the moonlight  that Grandma told me had the didactic message that no one should die before seeing the death that will kill him. In those days when men still carried eyes on their knees, two friends were discussing the unsavoury state of affairs in their polity. It is not today that governments started failing their people. One “amebo” eavesdropped on their discussion and quickly carried the tale to the palace. Pronto, the king sent his executioner to hurry the twosome to the palace. Everyone knew the outcome.

One of the friends retreated into his room, drank poison and died. The other followed the executioner who narrated how one of the two had behaved like a man by committing suicide. The king turned to the other man and said, “Coward! Why couldn’t you behave like a man just like your partner?” He answered and said, “Long may you live, O King! It is because I am not a coward that I decided to come and repeat before you everything that I said behind you. For it may be that the person who brought the report to you might have left out some things” “I am all ears”, said the king, but as the man began to pour out his mind, the king screamed “Enough!”. For what was oozing out of the man’s mouth to the hearing of everyone was worse than what the “amebo” had brought. The king saluted him for his bravery and discharged and acquitted him!

Don’t die before seeing the death that will kill you! Tomorrow is August 1st, the date that the touted nation-wide protest is expected to kick off. What scenarios are likely? One: it may prove a storm in a tea cup and an anti-climax. Either the organizers have invested more in propaganda than in diligent preparations or the panicky measures by the government to placate and meet some of the demands of the would-be protesters; the threats, tough talks laced with appeals from sundry quarters etc., may have done the magic of dousing tension. So, the protests may end up not being as spectacular as had been advertised and as many had expected.

Two: The protest is spectacularly successful; a huge number of Nigerians join it and troop to the street shouting “Ebi n pa wa!” “We are hungry!” “End bad governance now” “Tinubu must go!”, etc.  Two outcomes may be expected: a peaceful protest devoid of bloodshed.That will be a world record because it has never been in our DNA to stage peaceful protests. Where the protesters are peaceful, the police and other law enforcement agents will let hell loose on them and where the police withdraw, the protesters themselves can unleash terror on the same hapless citizens whose interests they claim to be advancing. Most times, the  madness is on both sides and, usually, it continues for a few days; lives and limbs are lost and property worth billions of Naira or dollars are destroyed. The damage to an already comatose economy is counted in billions of dollars. A bad situation is made worse in the process.

Three: the protest is well organized, well structured, well financed, and well managed. The goal is to effect a change of government as we have heard the security agencies allege. Again, there are two likely outcomes. This “civilian” coup may fail; it may also succeed. If it fails, the government crushes it and many lives are lost. The organizers or leaders are arrested and tried for treason. Some go underground or escape abroad. The government, having learned one or two lessons, announces cosmetic measures to fulfill all righteousness.

In the event that the protesters succeed to effect a change of government, that, too, comes at a huge price of loss of life, limbs and property. The measure of the organizational ability of the protesters – and the popular support they get – determines whether they are able to take the reins of government in their own hands or they work for others to eat. If they take power, then, they immediately step into the shoes of the government they have ceaselessly pilloried in the past many months and inherit all its problems. It will not take long before they realize that activism does not wish problems away and that economic problems do not yield to political sloganeering.

In the event that they can only kill the buffalo but their shoulders are not broad enough to carry it, others who may not share in their ideology may seize power and the protesters become the first casualties. Witness the example of Nigeria’s first coup plotters! Political elites everywhere follow the same iron law of oligarchy. Whether in a democracy, autocracy, dictatorship, monarchy or theocracy, elites rule. This is what the theorists of political elites call the pyramid of power. At the top are the ruling elites or ruling class while at the bottom of the pyramid (the base) are the masses. When the power structure is disturbed or upturned, the pyramid is never abolished, be it in a capitalist, communist, socialist, welfarist or whatever system of government. What simply happens is that a new set of people step into the existing structure and the music continues. What makes the difference is the ideology of the new sheriffs in town.

What is the ideology of the 1st August Movement, if I can call them that? Who are their moving spirits? Maybe we will begin to know when they show their face starting from tomorrow! While we wait for that, let me share with you a post written by Dr. Charles Omole and forwarded to me during the week because I share the writer’s viewpoints:.

It reads:“I think the government is giving these August 1st-10th protesters too much airtime. Many choose to emphasize the rights of Nigerians to protest peacefully (which is true) but fail to equally emphasize the rights of all Nigerians to go about their daily tasks peacefully. Therefore, if the protesters peacefully conduct themselves, carrying placards and gathering in ways that do not obstruct public roads or prevent others from their duties, they should be fully protected by the law and must not be harassed or hindered.

It is crucial to understand that blocking roads or harassing the public in the name of protests is unacceptable. Vandalizing public properties is not just unlawful, it can also lead to serious legal consequences. The rights of the protesters do not supersede the rights of other Nigerians and it is important to respect this balance.

In the UK, some climate change protesters have recently been sentenced to up to five years in jail for blocking the M25 Motorway during their protests. The road blockage caused immense economic disruption. And the court emphasized on the need to protest in ways that do not infringe on the rights of others.  I am yet to see anyone calling the UK government anti-free speech.

 The government should plan its scenarios and be ready to intervene, if needed. However, they should allow the protesters to demonstrate their good faith through peaceful protests while being given protection by the law. Anyone who decides to go beyond peaceful protests should be made to face the full brunt of the law. We all have rights. And your right to protest is not stronger than my right to go about my daily tasks in peace.

Globally, protests tend to be peaceful when organized by recognized groups with known leaders who take responsibility for their peaceful focus. However, whenever protests are called by faceless groups with no known leaders, there is a greater chance of violence as nobody takes responsibility for the conduct of the protest. This reality should inform the government’s planning, and security agencies must be on standby to step in, if necessary. A leaderless protest can easily become a descent into lawlessness.

August 1st will come and go. We will all still be here. Heaven will not fall. What will really be helpful is the protesters’ publication of a Position Paper on what policies they will pursue differently to grow the economy and how. I am not talking about glib generalities like “end bad Government”, which doesn’t really mean anything…”

I agree no less! But 10 whopping days of nationwide protest (August 1 – 10) nonstop appears to me as surreptitiously exporting the South-east’s “sit-at-home” madness to other parts of the country! Who will accept that?