PRESIDENT Bola Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in the southern Rivers State and the suspension of the State’s elected legislature and embattled governor may at best, serve as a balm with limited effect on the deep wounds from political power and resource control battles in Nigeria’s oil-bearing region.

For almost two years, Governor Siminalayi Fubara has been at daggers-drawn with his erstwhile political godfather and predecessor Nyesom Wike, the current Minister of Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, over what some call the “soul of Rivers State.”

Rivers State, in the volatile Niger Delta, which accounts for much of Nigeria’s oil revenue, is not new to political tensions.

The latest simmering crisis from 2023, is played out in a bitter tug-of-war between the governor and the legislature, with the involvement of the federal might. Matters reached a crescendo on Tuesday, 18 March 2025, when multiple explosions were reported at some critical oil pipelines.

Citing the failure of the State legislature and the governor to “work together for the peace and good governance of the state…,” President Tinubu said, in a 12-minute national broadcast “…it has become inevitably compelling for me to invoke the provision of section 305 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 as amended, to declare a state of emergency in Rivers State with effect from today, 18th March 2025 and I so do,”

“By this declaration,” he said, “the Governor of Rivers State Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, Mrs Ngozi Odu and all elected members of the House of Assembly of Rivers State are hereby suspended for an initial period of six months.”

President Tinubu also nominated “Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas (Rtd) as an administrator to take charge of the affairs of the state…,” noting that the “declaration does not affect the judicial arm of Rivers State…”

He accused the governor of demolishing the State House of Assembly complex for “unjustifiable reasons,” on 13th December 2023, and “has, up until now, fourteen (14) months after, not rebuilt same.”

President Tinubu said he made “personal interventions between the contending parties for a peaceful resolution of the crisis, but my efforts have been largely ignored by the parties to the crisis. I am also aware that many well-meaning Nigerians, leaders of thought and Patriotic groups have also intervened at various times with the best of intentions to resolve the matter, but all their efforts were to no avail. Still, I thank them.”

He further accused Governor Fubara of “several grave unconstitutional acts and disregard of the rule of law” and the “28 February 2025 judgement of the Supreme Court judgment in respect of about eight consolidated appeals concerning the political crisis in Rivers State.”

According to the President, quoting the Supreme Court “…in their judgment and having found and held that 27 members of the House who had allegedly defected are still valid members of Rivers State House of Assembly and cannot be prevented from participating in the proceedings of that House by the 8th Respondent (that is, the Governor) in cohorts with four members.

However, the same judgment has attracted criticism from analysts and legal experts, including Prof Chidi Odinkalu, a constitutional lawyer who argues in Rivers State, a Supreme Iniquity? that it is at variance with the apex court’s previous decisions on similar cases.

In previous judgments, the Supreme Court held that lawmakers who defect to other political parties, without any proven division in the party on which platform they were elected, should lose their seats. But this has not happened in Rivers State.

In his address, President Tinubu said: “Some militants had threatened fire and brimstone against their perceived enemy of the governor who has up till now NOT disowned them.”

“The latest security reports made available to me show that between yesterday and today, there have been disturbing incidents of (vandalism) of pipelines by some militants without the Governor taking any action to curtail them. I have, of course, given stern orders to the security agencies to ensure the safety of the lives of the good people of Rivers State and the oil pipelines,” the President affirmed.

He explained that “The Administrator will not make any new laws. He will, however, be free to formulate regulations as may be found necessary to do his job, but such regulations will need to be considered and approved by the Federal Executive Council and promulgated by the President…”

The President expressed his “fervent hope that this inevitable intervention will help to restore peace and order in Rivers State by awakening all the contenders to the constitutional imperatives binding on all political players in Rivers State in particular and Nigeria as a whole.”

However, analysts are less optimistic, predicting that the presidential declaration could open a floodgate of litigation, challenging its legality, with some already pointing out that the presidential address made no mention of the role of the former Governor Wike, the FCT Minister, one of the dramatis personae or the cause célèbre.

Wike insists he belongs to the opposition PDP, but his closeness to President Tinubu and the ruling APC is public knowledge.

He also boasts that as sitting governor, he was instrumental to the president’s controversial electoral victory in Rivers State in 2023.

In one of the initial reactions to the presidential address, Atiku Abubakar, the Presidential candidate of the opposition PDP in the 2023 election, said: “The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State reeks of political manipulation and outright bad faith.”

He said: “Anyone paying attention to the unfolding crisis knows that (President) Bola Tinubu has been a vested partisan actor in the political turmoil engulfing Rivers. “Beyond the political scheming in Rivers, the brazen security breaches that led to the condemnable destruction of national infrastructure in the state land squarely on the President’s desk.”

According to Atiku, “It is an unforgivable failure that under (President) Tinubu’s watch, the Niger Delta has been thrown back into an era of violent unrest and instability -undoing the hard-won peace secured by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Years of progress have been recklessly erased in pursuit of selfish political calculations,” he added.

The former presidential candidate said: “Punishing the people of Rivers State just to serve the political gamesmanship between the governor and (President) Tinubu’s enablers in the federal government is nothing less than an assault on democracy and must be condemned in the strongest terms.”

Under the Nigerian Constitution, grounds for declaration of a state of emergency include Natural Disasters – earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, or other natural disasters that threaten lives and property; Security Threats – insurgency, terrorism, civil unrest, or other security threats that imperil national security; Economic Crisis – severe economic downturn, financial instability, or other economic emergencies and Public Health Crisis – outbreaks of infectious diseases, pandemics, or other public health emergencies.

During emergency rules civil liberties may be suspended, including freedom of movement, assembly, and speech; military authorities may assume control of civil authorities, curfews may be imposed, and emergency regulations may be enacted.

Increased Executive Powers, potentially limiting legislative and judicial oversight are also common under a state of emergency. In some jurisdictions, the declaration requires legislative approval and judicial review to ensure that the emergency measures are constitutional and proportionate.

Emergency declarations may also be limited in duration, requiring periodic renewal or extension.

Nigeria’s chequered political history is no stranger to emergency declarations.

The first was in November 1962, following large-scale irregularities in the country’s first census that led to the crisis in the Action Group (AG)-controlled Western Region, two years after the country’s independence from Britain in 1960.

Africa’s most populous nation witnessed a long spell of military rule, and on return to civilian rule in May 1999, it was President Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007), who declared the next state of emergency in May 2004, following the cycle of violence between Muslim and Christian communities that claimed over 2,000 lives in the central Plateau state.

President Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015), first imposed a State of Emergency in some local government areas in northern Borno State, and central Plateau State in 2011, before slapping Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, all in northern States with emergency rule in May 2013 over Boko Haram insurgency.

The need to prevent unforeseen developments that could adversely impact Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy might have informed the latest extraordinary measures imposed on Rivers State, but the last has not been heard from the volatile Nigerian region.

In the next six months, attention will be on Vice Admiral Ibas (Rtd), the 22nd Chief of Staff of the Nigerian Navy (2015 to 2021) and the magic up his sleeve.

Some might consider it a blight on democracy in Nigeria that elected officials are turning to the military for governance support.

Traditionally, the navy and other arms of Nigerian security forces provide security for oil production in Niger Delta.

Whether a retired Naval officer has the silver bullet to succeed where politicians are faltering as River State’s administrator remains to be seen.

Ejime Is A Global Affairs Analyst And Consultant On Peace & Security And Governance Communication